Chemical recycling of polyolefins must hit 650 million metric tons in cumulative global volume to match the cost of producing virgin plastics, according to a new Bain & Company report. The findings have direct implications for the packaging sector across the Middle East and Africa (MEA), where rising plastic use and mounting waste challenges are prompting scrutiny of recycling technologies.
The report highlights the current cost gap: in Europe, chemical recycling remains more than twice as expensive as virgin plastic. Bridging this gap would require around €400 billion in capital investment and another €270 billion in premiums, which would likely come from higher end-user prices, policy support, or value chain restructuring.
While chemical recycling holds promise for hard-to-recycle packaging waste, especially multilayer films and flexible formats common in food and consumer goods, the pathway to cost-competitiveness is long. Bain estimates that it will take two to three decades to reach the 650 Mt global volume threshold. At that point, chemically recycled plastics could cover 20–30% of global demand.
In the MEA region, where plastic consumption is climbing and mechanical recycling infrastructure remains underdeveloped, chemical recycling is seen as a potential long-term solution. However, cost remains a key barrier. For packaging companies operating in or sourcing from MEA markets, the investment risk is significant.
To speed up progress, Bain recommends several strategies: securing early offtake agreements to guarantee feedstock and customer commitment, pushing for phased blending mandates similar to those used in the biofuels sector, and adopting flexible business models such as long-term contracts and dynamic pricing.
“This is not just about technology; it’s about orchestrating investments, policy support, and commercial commitments over decades,” the report states.
For packaging producers and regulators in MEA, the findings offer a sobering look at the financial scale required to make chemical recycling viable. The next two decades will determine whether this approach becomes a mainstream solution—or remains a niche option.