Europe’s gas supply strategy is facing renewed strain amid rising geopolitical risks and tightening global LNG markets, shifting attention toward African liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects that were sanctioned prior to current disruptions and are now nearing or entering production.
These projects are increasingly viewed as near-term supply options, offering available or soon-to-be-available volumes without the extended timelines typically associated with new greenfield LNG developments, which can take five to seven years to come online.
Mozambique remains central to Africa’s long-term LNG outlook, with more than 30 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of planned capacity across developments led by major operators. However, progress on the 12.9 mtpa Mozambique LNG project has been delayed due to security concerns, although discussions around a potential restart are ongoing.
In West Africa, the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) LNG project, located offshore Senegal and Mauritania, is approaching production. The first phase is expected to deliver approximately 2.3 mtpa, with expansion potential. Its floating LNG design enables flexible deployment and relatively shorter delivery routes to Europe.
Nigeria’s LNG Train 7 expansion is another significant near-term contributor, expected to add around 8 mtpa to existing capacity. By leveraging established infrastructure, the project is positioned to deliver incremental supply more quickly than new standalone developments.
Angola LNG, with a capacity of 5.2 mtpa, is also gaining renewed attention. Historically underutilised due to feedgas limitations, improvements in upstream supply are expected to support higher utilisation rates. Meanwhile, the Republic of Congo’s LNG project has already commenced exports through a phased, modular development approach.
Beyond the energy sector, these developments carry implications for energy-intensive industries, including packaging. Natural gas plays a critical role both as a fuel and as a feedstock in petrochemical production, influencing the availability and cost of key packaging materials such as polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET).
Improved LNG availability could contribute to greater stability in energy supply for polymer and paper production, particularly in Europe, where energy costs have previously affected manufacturing output. For packaging converters, this may influence raw material price volatility, production continuity, and overall cost structures across plastics and fibre-based packaging segments.
These dynamics are expected to feature prominently at the upcoming Invest in African Energy Forum in Paris, where stakeholders will assess how emerging LNG supply aligns with evolving global demand and industrial requirements.